Embracing Uncertainty in Decision-Making
Uncertainty in decision-making: Making peace with not knowing.
Posted September 18, 2025 | Reviewed by Jessica Schrader
Uncertainty seems to be everywhere right now. Uncertainty about the economy, politics , careers, weather, and wars, to name just a few. Doubt sets in anytime we face a decision with incomplete or unknown information. Uncertainty stands in the way of predictability , which most of us crave. In decision-making , we are taught to focus on three main criteria: risks, potential trade-offs, and the probability or likelihood of specific outcomes. In reality, we can't adequately identify or quantify risks, we don't often grasp alternatives and their trade-offs, and we are completely inaccurate when we try to forecast the likelihood of a particular event happening.
Although uncertainty seems to be on the uptick, it has always been here. Think about generations before who dealt with world wars and economic depressions. Today's difference is that we have a constant news cycle and mobile devices that bring us algorithm-based social media and news feeds with continuous visibility to world events.
Whether we're navigating a career move, managing a disease or health scare, investing hard-earned money, or deciding how to respond to world events, the future can feel unpredictable. Our brains have a strong preference for predictability and stability. Over time, this has helped our ancestors survive. But today, the pursuit of total clarity can and will lead to anxiety , indecision, and frustration. Instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty, psychology teaches us a more effective approach: reframe how you perceive, think, and decide in uncertain situations.
Why We Struggle With Uncertainty
Psychologists have been studying our lack of appetite for uncertainty for decades. Being unsure of something creates intense feelings of discomfort. This distress activates the brain's threat system, including the amygdala and hypothalamus, creating excess stress hormones that further narrow our perspective. That's why uncertain situations often trigger binary thinking and impulsive actions. This reaction then causes us to overestimate risks, avoid opportunities, and cling rigidly to plans even when they no longer serve us.
Research suggests that intolerance of uncertainty is strongly associated with higher levels of worry and anxiety. Individuals with high intolerance of uncertainty were more likely to engage in excessive worrying than those who were more comfortable with ambiguity. Despite having the same set of facts, those individuals who are more capable of adapting to ambiguity have less overall anxiety.
But how do some people become comfortable with ambiguity, while others drown in it? Reframing uncertainty doesn't mean ignoring risks or limiting your exposure to news and information. It means approaching choices with greater flexibility, curiosity, and balance.
Move From Prediction to Preparation
One powerful reframe is shifting from prediction to preparation. Despite our best efforts, we can never predict the future or any specific event. We might guess if or when we could lose a job, enter a recession, or face some illness. All of these are mysteries, shrouded by uncertainty. While research and planning are essential, reality is too complex to forecast accurately, and trying to do so only increases stress when life inevitably surprises us.
Preparation, by contrast, is about readiness. Instead of asking, "What will happen?" ask, "How can I be ready for a range of different possibilities?" Preparedness requires a subtle mindset change, which encourages flexibility and growth. Great athletes train for multiple scenarios and settings, just in case. Executives build contingency plans for best and worst-case outcomes. For you, this might mean developing new skills so we're equipped for unexpected turns, building emergency savings, and forging new relationships. Preparation transforms uncertainty from a threat into new plans and dreams .
Think in Probabilities, Not Absolutes
Another helpful reframe is to think probabilistically. Like most of you, my brain often defaults to binary categories, like right or wrong, or success versus failure. The world is rarely that simple. Thinking in probabilities encourages us to weigh likelihoods rather than certainties. It helps us avoid all-or-nothing thinking and opens the door to wiser alternatives.
Take investing as an example. Savvy investors diversify portfolios not because they know which stock will win in the short term, but because spreading risk increases the probability of stable returns over time. The same applies to other life choices. When considering a new job, instead of asking, "Will this be the right move?" try "What are the chances this will bring me increased satisfaction?" We are not usually solving for one "optimal" decision, but instead focusing on adapting our choices to new circumstances as they arrive.
Practice Cognitive Flexibility
Reframing uncertainty also draws on a psychological skill known as cognitive flexibility —the ability to shift perspectives and adapt thinking when circumstances change. If something did not turn out as you had hoped, remind yourself that you grow through diverse opportunities. Flexible thinkers can hold multiple possibilities in their minds at the same time, without collapsing into paralysis or denial . Setbacks are just new data points, not total disasters. Brain elasticity and flexibility have been linked to resilience in stressful situations, mainly due to better coping strategies. Flexibility is a necessary, protective mechanism.
To build flexibility, practice challenging negative and rigid thoughts. For example, instead of saying, "If I don't get this opportunity, I will fail," reframe it as, "If this path doesn't happen, there will be other options coming my way."
Use Uncertainty to Catalyze Growth
Perhaps the most empowering reframe is to view uncertainty as a catalyst for change. All of our major life choices and actions (e.g., falling in love, choosing a college or career, or taking that first job) have high degrees of uncertainty. Embrace that uncertainty. Research in positive psychology shows that tolerating ambiguity can enhance creativity , problem-solving, and resilience. When outcomes aren't predetermined, we are more likely to innovate and discover inner resources we didn't know we had, creating more confidence for future choices, even when the path is not obvious.
Unfettered uncertainty will create anxiety. But by reframing our thinking, we can transform how we respond to the unknown. Instead of fearing it, we can approach it more positively, with new possibilities.
Dugas, M.J., Gosselin, P. & Ladouceur, R. Intolerance of Uncertainty and Worry: Investigating Specificity in a Nonclinical Sample. Cognitive Therapy and Research 25, 551–558 (2001).
Martin, M. M., & Rubin, R. B. (1995). A new measure of cognitive flexibility. Psychological Reports, 76 (2), 623–626.
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James Langabeer, Ph.D., Ed.D., is a leading behavioral scientist and tenured Professor of Medicine and Clinical Informatics at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth).
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This article is part of the Bringwise Psychology Journal — daily insights on human behavior, mental health, and personal growth.